Fran Duffy’s Big Board: 50 NFL Draft Prospects To Watch This Fall

While NFL mock drafts may draw more eyeballs and vitriol from fan bases, they are still not quite as divisive as a Big Board. The exercise of stacking players on a vertical board is a tricky one, and I’m going to give you guys a little teaser before you take a look at the final version of mine. The first thing you should know…

This Is Not Your Typical Big Board.

Why? 

There are three reasons: Objective, Positional Value, and the use of a Horizontal Board.

Let’s start with the first item, my objective. This board is NOT about what order I predict the players to hear their names called on draft weekend. It is not meant to be a list of who I think are the Top 50 picks in the draft. That’s what my Mock Draft is for. Rather, this is what I expect each player to be valued at four years from now. It’s about what I believe their transition will be to the NFL. 

Next is the topic of positional value, which I think is an extremely important part of the evaluation process. Even fans and analysts who say that they don’t believe in positional value can admit that it matters in some way, otherwise they would have elite kickers and punters with high grades on a more regular basis. Everyone can agree that they would not take a kicker in the Top 30 picks of a draft, so if you can say that, then you can agree that positional value is real. 

That said, I don’t think it’s as easy as ‘every top quarterback, edge rusher, tackle and wide receiver should get bumped ahead of everyone else.’ If you were doing an expansion draft of the NFL right now, would you rather have Quinyon Mitchell or Jahan Dotson? Dre Greenlaw or Josh Uche? Tyler Smith or Tyson Bagent? The quality of the player matters in these debates. How does the NFL establish the quality of the player? Through their wallets. Which leads me to how I stack these prospects …

I’m a big believer in the use of a horizontal board as opposed to a vertical one. I will include both in this exercise so that you’re able to see the difference between the two and also see why they can be important. Using the player salaries that I briefly referenced above, I’ve created a tiering system that helps me to form stacks of players at every position. 

In the far left column, you have different salary tiers (set by the ‘Average Annual Value’ of the contract) with different tier breaks being set, going from highest to lowest. From left to right, you have each position group, with corresponding players in each bucket. Not only do I have a college board that is built this way, but I have a pro board as well, full of NFL players. With basically every transaction that comes across the NFL wire every week, I update this board, and so at any given time I can tell you who the pass rushers are in the NFL that are making at least $10 million a year, or who the cornerbacks are that cleared $17 million AAV, or which quarterbacks in the league earn at least $48 million. 

With this pro board all set up, when I watch a college player and I write my projection, I then have to place him in a tier. What level of player do I think he will most likely turn out to be in the NFL? What role can he fit? How much value does he bring to an NFL team? Once the player is placed in a tier, I have a corresponding value, and now they’re placed in. To separate players within each bucket, I have a basic 20-point grading scale for each position. Once I give a player a grade in each of those 20 areas, it spits out a number, and players are sorted in each bucket, by each position, by their number grade. 

So if I have a guard, a pass rusher and a wide receiver that I believe all project to be in the $10 million-per year bucket, with the guard having the best score of the three, that’s who will be highest on the vertical board. By staying true to my process, I keep bias from creeping in. I keep groupthink out. I stay grounded to my evaluations and my projections (which obviously change throughout the process as I study more film and acquire more information about every prospect). 

Before I get to the final version of my boards, I wanted to reiterate one very important part of this for me, personally. More than anything else, what I value most in this entire process is the report; the individual projection for a player. I don’t get caught up in the ranking, as long as I get individual reports right. For example, I want to look back at one of my biggest misses in the draft. In 2020 I had Jalen Reagor graded higher than CeeDee Lamb. I loved both players. They were both in the same bucket for me. I clearly missed the mark on Reagor’s projection, but whenever I go back and re-read my write-up on Lamb, I nailed it. He is exactly the player I felt that he could be coming out of Oklahoma. I wasn’t ‘too low’ on him, but I was too high on Reagor. That’s an important distinction, and it’s worked both ways over the course of my career. 

VERTICAL BOARD – TOP 25

— TIER 1 | $48 Million AAV —

— TIER 2 | $28 Million AAV — 

— TIER 3 | $22 Million AAV — 

1 – DL Keldric Faulk | Auburn

• Young, athletic, powerful, tough, versatile and productive … with high character? One of the cleanest evaluations in a murky class and his traits are outstanding.

2 – DL Peter Woods | Clemson

• The Tigers have disappointed this year as a group but Woods’ film is still strong; checks all of the boxes on and off the field as a versatile impact starter along the front

3 – QB Garrett Nussmeier | LSU

• One of the trickiest projections at this point because of how injury has affected his play; I still have belief in him as a competent starting quarterback in the NFL

4 – QB LaNorris Sellers | South Carolina

• Has better physical tools than Nussmeier but lower floor as well; still requires more work at the nuances of the position

5 – QB Dante Moore | Oregon

• First-year starter with accuracy, poise and athleticism all on his side; want to see him continue doing it over the second half of the schedule and beyond

— TIER 4 | $17 Million AAV — 

6 – S Caleb Downs | Ohio State

• A do-it-all playmaker who has been truly unlocked in Matt Patricia’s defense with his versatile skillset; he’s tough, instinctive and athletic with traits to be one of the league’s best

7 – EDGE Rueben Bain JR | Miami

• One of my biggest risers this year now a full-year removed from a nagging calf injury that limited his power last fall; plays like his hair is on fire and has been one of the best defensive players in the country this year

8 – T Spencer Fano | Utah 

• Competitive, technically-sound tackle with strength to handle NFL power, athleticism to protect the corner, and the tenacity to battle at either tackle spot upon entering the league

9 – DL A’Mauri Washington | Oregon

• First-year starter with traits for days; outstanding athlete with natural strength and power; his upside is through the roof

10 – T/G Kadyn Proctor | Alabama

• A tricky evaluation because the traits are there to be an overwhelming force at the point of attack with rare size, but with high highs come low lows; hoping to see a more stable second half of the season

11 – T/G Francis Mauigoa | Miami

• A skilled pass protector with impressive patience and hand usage; he’s strong, powerful and violent in the run game as well – he’s just a rock solid player

12 – CB Avieon Terrell | Clemson

• He’s on the smaller side but he’s a loose, fluid matchup corner who will scrap with anyone and has the instincts to match routes at every level of the field

13 – EDGE TJ Parker | Clemson

• Strong power rusher who can push the pocket, set a strong edge in the run game and deliver huge hits on quarterbacks and ball carriers; won’t win fast off the ball but his skillset translates

14 – WR Jordyn Tyson | Arizona State

• One of my biggest risers of this season because of how much more consistent he’s been at the catch point; he’s a sharp route runner who plays through contact extremely well in every facet of his game

15 – CB Jermod McCoy | Tennessee

• Instinctive ballhawk who plays with a lot of tenacity and grit; he has not played a down this year after tearing his ACL in January

— TIER 5 | $10 Million AAV — 

16 – S Emmanuel McNeill-Warren | Toledo

• I’m still relatively early on my evaluation with this player but I love what I’ve seen; rangy athlete with fast eyes, physicality and ballhawking traits

17 – RB Jeremiyah Love | Notre Dame

• An explosive athlete with patience and decision making that would make him a fit in any scheme as a three-down presence and impactful starter

18 – iOL Vega Ioane | Penn State

• Skillset to be one of the best guards in football; has natural power to move defenders off the ball in the run game and he’s strong enough to hold his ground vs NFL bull rushers, even though his technique can continue to improve

19 – LB Arvell Reese | Ohio State

• One of the biggest risers from this season so far in his first year starting; has outstanding size, explosiveness and strength and has the versatile skillset to be a downhill MIKE or traditional SAM linebacker with flexibility as a rusher

20 – TE Kenyon Sadiq | Oregon

• One of my personal favorite players in the class; outstanding athlete but also a tough, competitive blocker – the arrow is only pointing up with him

21 – T Caleb Tiernan | Northwestern

• I’m early on the evaluation of this player but from what I’ve seen he looks like an NFL starter all day at tackle; athletic blocker who can get off the ball who checks all of the boxes from a physical and technical side

22 – QB Sam Leavitt | Arizona State

• One of the most naturally accurate passers in the class; would love to see him go back to school to maximize his earning potential in the NFL – but he looks like a future starter

23 – CB Malik Muhammad | Texas

• Easy player to like on film; excellent combination of toughness and instincts but the speed will be the big question entering the pre-draft process

24 – EDGE Matayo Uiagalelei | Oregon

• Solid pass rusher who can defend the run and play with physicality and competitiveness to earn more snaps; he’s probably more Robin than Batman in a pass rush duo but feel great about the floor

25 – WR Chris Brazzell | Tennessee

• Impressive height/weight/speed combination who can excel as a vertical ball winner outside the numbers, but he must improve as a route runner

26 – WR Carnell Tate | Ohio State

• Check all of the boxes with him; he has good size, is solid across the board from the physical end of things and is as tough and dependable as they come … but what is the upside?

27 – CB AJ Harris | Penn State

• Graceful athlete with speed to carry vertical routes and I love the play temperament; tools of a potential No. 1 corner with some downside risk

28 – T/G Xavier Chaplin | Auburn

• Big, strong, powerful man at left tackle who could transition inside to guard in the league; penalties have been an issue but at his best he’s an impactful blocker at the point of attack

29 – EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton | Penn State

• Big, stout base defensive end who gets off the ball and plays with the violence you want in a starting pass rusher; interested to see how he finishes out the season after the coaching change in Happy Valley

30 – iOL Emmanuel Pregnon | Oregon

• Big, stout guard who won’t wow you with athleticism but he’s tough, technically-sound and battle-tested as a sixth-year senior with experience at both guard spots at three different programs

31 – iOL Connor Lew | Auburn

• Scheme-specific as a zone scheme center-only; great athlete at the pivot who looks great on the move and can be a weapon in space for creative coaches in the run and screen games

32 – DL Caleb Banks | Florida

• Carried a Top 10 grade for me entering the year but has barely played due to a foot injury that caused him to miss the entire offseason as well; tough pill to swallow for an older late-breakout at nose tackle

33 – T/G Max Iheanachor | Arizona State

• Big-bodied tackle with great quickness and overall athleticism; he didn’t play a game until the Junior College level, so the upside is sky-high as he continues to stack reps

34 – T Caleb Lomu | Utah

• Great athlete at left tackle who can afford to get stronger and further develop his hands; would likely face rough patches if he plays early but with patience the investment would pay off

— TIER 6 | $6 Million AAV — 

35 – CB Mansoor Delane | LSU

• A physical press corner who swallows routes up quickly with physicality and length; he has a good feel for his role in their various zone schemes and has been a huge addition to that secondary this year

36 – WR KC Koncepcion | Texas A&M

• Really good complement in an NFL passing attack with his athleticism and speed; the upside is high as a route runner, he can make plays after the catch and has return chops as well

37 – iOL Logan Jones | Iowa

• Standout athlete as an undersized center; won’t be a fit for everyone but he’s a technically-sound run blocker with toughness you’d expect from a converted defensive tackle

38 – LB Sonny Styles | Ohio State

• Rare combination of size and athleticism; he can run, cover, blitz and be a presence against the run after making the move from safety in 2023; the arrow is pointing up on this projection

39 – DL Mateen Ibirogba | Wake Forest

• First-step penetrator capable of wreaking havoc in the pass and run games thanks to his burst off the ball; one of the more underrated names in the nation right now

40 – LB CJ Allen | Georgia

• A physical presence in the middle of that defense who checks all of the boxes; ultra-reliable player capable of being a ‘Green Dot’ middle linebacker in the NFL

41 – QB Fernando Mendoza | Indiana

• Unmoved by the physical tools but he’s accurate, throws with timing and he’s a tough, competitive executor of their scheme; looks more like a high-end backup than solid starter in the NFL

42 – S Dillon Thieneman | Oregon

• Well-rounded safety who won’t wow with physical traits but he’s smart, competitive and can take the ball away

43 – iOL Iapani Laloulu | Oregon

• Versatile interior lineman who projects well as a solid starter at either guard or center in the NFL; nimble athlete who fits great in a zone scheme

44 – QB Carson Beck | Miami

• Has reminded everyone why evaluators were high on him entering 2024; has modest physical tools but his release, touch and ability to access the middle of the field all stand out – there’s enough here to be a high-end backup

45 – CB Chandler Rivers | Duke

• Competitive cover corner who probably fits best in the slot in the NFL but he has an outstanding feel in zone coverage and is always around the ball in the pass game and against the run

46 – S Isaac Smith | Mississippi State

• Unheralded name but he’s a fantastic run defender from depth who will fit in today’s split-safety NFL as a solid starter on the back end

47 – DL Darrell Jackson JR | Florida State

• This class is full of good run-stuffing noseguards and Jackson is one of the best; outstanding size, anchor strength and power in his hands

48 – EDGE David Bailey | Texas Tech

• My guess is that he will get drafted higher than this slot; he’s extremely explosive and can win the corner as well as any rusher in the class, but his ability to be a three-down presence will be a question mark

49 – EDGE LT Overton | Alabama

• Heavy-handed combo lineman with inside-out versatility; he’s young, powerful  and has traits that typically land players in the Top 40 of a draft

50 – LB Whit Weeks | LSU

• A smooth athlete with a high floor; he’s been extremely productive since entering the lineup and has traits of a starting NFL linebacker